Derby host West Brom in the Championship on Wednesday 9 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while West Brom sit 5th on 28 points (in the top half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to West Ham 0–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
West Brom's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Watford 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
West Brom arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Derby and 1.4 for West Brom. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 36%, draw 24%, West Brom 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Derby 1–1 West Brom. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby36%fair 2.74 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
West Brom40%fair 2.53 · @2.44
2.78Expected goals
1.36Derby xG
1.42West Brom xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.4 West Brom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
West Brom to win✓
40%
2.53
2.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT West Brom / FT West Brom✓
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
9%
11.31
–
Form
Derby – last 6
LWLDLL
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
West Brom – last 6
WDLLWW
5 Sep
vs Watford
1–0
W
2 Sep
vs Charlton
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Middlesbrough
1–3
L
26 Aug
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
23 Aug
vs Burnley
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ Norwich
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and West Brom.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Derby vs West Brom?
On our numbers Derby have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and West Brom 40%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs West Brom?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs West Brom?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 West Brom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Derby vs West Brom?
Derby vs West Brom (Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
