Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Larne to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLarne to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceLarne or draw ✗82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.14
Larne vs Linfield preview and prediction
The match
Larne host Linfield in the Premiership on Tuesday 20 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Inver Park. Larne are 3rd with 26 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Linfield sit 1st on 36 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Larne's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Coleraine FC 2–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Linfield's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Carrick Rangers 2–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 February 2026, finished Larne 1–1 Linfield.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Larne and 0.8 for Linfield. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Larne 57%, draw 25%, Linfield 18%.
Safer route: Larne or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Larne to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Larne or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Larne 1–0 Linfield. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Larne57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.30
Linfield18%fair 5.65 · @3.60
2.47Expected goals
1.66Larne xG
0.81Linfield xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Larne 1.7 – 0.8 Linfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Larne or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Larne vs Linfield?
On our numbers Larne have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Linfield 18%.
How many goals will there be in Larne vs Linfield?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Larne vs Linfield?
Our predicted score is Larne 1–0 Linfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Larne vs Linfield?
Larne vs Linfield (Premiership) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Inver Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
