Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSturm Graz to win ✗71% · @1.30
Double chanceSturm Graz or draw ✓91% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 6.91
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau preview and prediction
The match
Sturm Graz host Austria Lustenau in the Bundesliga on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Merkur-Arena. Sturm Graz are 5th with 19 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Austria Lustenau sit 8th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sturm Graz's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat SCR Altach 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Austria Lustenau's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Wolfsberger AC 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.1 for Sturm Graz and 0.6 for Austria Lustenau. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sturm Graz 71%, draw 20%, Austria Lustenau 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 2–0 Austria Lustenau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturm Graz71%fair 1.42 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @5.00
Austria Lustenau9%fair 10.71 · @9.40
2.70Expected goals
2.07Sturm Graz xG
0.62Austria Lustenau xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 2.1 – 0.6 Austria Lustenau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sturm Graz to win✗
71%
1.42
1.30
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.62
Half-time result
Sturm Graz ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sturm Graz / FT Sturm Graz✗
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
6.91
–
Form
Sturm Graz – last 6
WLWLDW
15 Aug
vs SCR Altach
1–0
W
11 Aug
vs Fenerbahçe
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ TSV Hartberg
2–0
W
5 Aug
@ Fenerbahçe
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ WSG Wattens
1–1
D
28 Jul
@ Heart Of Midlothian
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Austria Lustenau – last 6
WLDWLD
15 Aug
vs Wolfsberger AC
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Grazer AK
1–2
L
2 Aug
vs Ried
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Krems Rehberg
1–0
W
16 Jul
@ Nürnberg II
0–1
L
15 Jul
@ Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Austria Lustenau 9%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 2–0 Austria Lustenau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
