II Liga East · Poland · Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa PilsudskiegoPodhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra prediction & analysis
Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Podhale Nowy Targ to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Podhale Nowy Targ 2.5 – 1.2 Lechia Zielona Góra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Podhale Nowy Targ are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 15% for Lechia Zielona Góra.
Podhale Nowy Targ have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 per game. Lechia Zielona Góra have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. Podhale Nowy Targ come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.5 for Podhale Nowy Targ, 1.2 for Lechia Zielona Góra). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
Our pick is Podhale Nowy Targ or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Podhale Nowy Targ to win at 1.80 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Podhale Nowy Targ to win ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Podhale Nowy Targ or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time result | Podhale Nowy Targ ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Podhale Nowy Targ / FT Podhale Nowy Targ ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.68 | – |
Form
Podhale Nowy Targ – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ Chojniczanka Chojnice | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Legia Warszawa II | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Stal Stalowa Wola | 5–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Sep | vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 3–1 | W |
Lechia Zielona Góra – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Legia Warszawa II | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Znicz Pruszków | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Resovia Rzeszów | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Świt Skolwin | 1–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Ruch Chorzów | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Podhale Nowy Targ and Lechia Zielona Góra.
II Liga East table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Znicz Pruszków | 15 | +12 | 33 |
| 2 |  Górnik Łęczna | 15 | +18 | 29 |
| 3 |  Tychy 71 | 14 | +11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Chojniczanka Chojnice | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 5 |  Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 6 |  Legia Warszawa II | 15 | +5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Podhale Nowy Targ | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Lechia Zielona Góra | 15 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 |  Olimpia Grudziądz | 15 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Hutnik Kraków | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 12 |  Avia Świdnik | 15 | -4 | 20 |
| 13 |  Stal Stalowa Wola | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 15 | +1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Sokół Kleczew | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 16 |  Świt Skolwin | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Śląsk Wrocław II | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 |  Resovia Rzeszów | 15 | -16 | 6 |
More II Liga East predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
Our pick is Podhale Nowy Targ or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
On our numbers Podhale Nowy Targ have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lechia Zielona Góra 15%.
How many goals will there be in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra (II Liga East) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.