Premier League · Russia · Akhmat-Arena

Akhmat

LDLLL
1–0
FT

Rodina Moskva

WLWDL

Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva prediction & analysis

83%
Footrivo pick

Akhmat or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1

Value bet: Akhmat to win @ 1.78 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultAkhmat to win ✓64% · @1.78
Double chanceAkhmat or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.66
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.17

Win chances

Akhmat64%fair 1.56 · @1.78
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @4.10
Rodina Moskva17%fair 6.01 · @4.25
2.94Expected goals
2.03Akhmat xG
0.91Rodina Moskva xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%

From our goals model: Akhmat 2.0 – 0.9 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Akhmat are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 17% for Rodina Moskva.

Akhmat have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Rodina Moskva have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded. Rodina Moskva come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.9 goals (2.0 for Akhmat, 0.9 for Rodina Moskva). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).

Our pick is Akhmat or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Akhmat to win at 1.78 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAkhmat to win ✓64%1.561.78 ▲
Double chanceAkhmat or draw ✓83%1.201.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗58%1.721.66
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78%1.281.19
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗56%1.791.71
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓66%1.521.41
Half-time resultAkhmat ahead at half-time ✓46%2.18–
Half-time / full-timeHT Akhmat / FT Akhmat ✓41%2.46–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11%9.17–

Form

Akhmat – last 6

LDLLLD
31 Oct@ Dynamo0–2L
27 Oct@ Fakel0–0D
23 Octvs FC Orenburg0–1L
18 Oct@ Zenit2–3L
14 Octvs Dynamo1–2L
11 Octvs Baltika0–0D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Rodina Moskva – last 6

WLWDLL
31 Octvs FC Krasnodar2–1W
28 Oct@ FC Orenburg1–2L
24 Oct@ Fakel1–0W
19 Octvs FC Orenburg2–2D
15 Octvs Spartak Moscow2–4L
11 Oct@ CSKA Moscow0–3L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Akhmat and Rodina Moskva.

More Premier League predictions

FT Fakel1 Dynamo2 162361 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.22 ✓ FT FC Krasnodar4 CSKA Moscow2 422236 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 67%@1.42 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva?

Our pick is Akhmat or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva?

On our numbers Akhmat have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rodina Moskva 17%.

How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

When is Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva?

Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.