Value bet: Rodina Moskva to win @ 3.94 – our chance 33% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFakel to win ✗45% · @2.01
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗72% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Fakel take on Rodina Moskva on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Fakel Stadium. Fakel are 16th with 6 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Rodina Moskva sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fakel's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Krylia Sovetov 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Rodina Moskva's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with FC Orenburg 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Fakel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 April 2026, finished Fakel 1–3 Rodina Moskva.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Fakel and 1.2 for Rodina Moskva. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fakel 45%, draw 22%, Rodina Moskva 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.86.
Value angle: Rodina Moskva to win at 3.94 – 33% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel45%fair 2.20 · @2.01
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.44
Rodina Moskva33%fair 3.05 · @3.94
2.74Expected goals
1.51Fakel xG
1.23Rodina Moskva xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.5 – 1.2 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Fakel have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rodina Moskva 33%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
