Value bet: FC Orenburg to win @ 3.80 – our chance 33% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAkhmat to win ✗46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.71
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.48
Akhmat vs FC Orenburg preview and prediction
The match
Akhmat host FC Orenburg in the Premier League on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Akhmat-Arena. Akhmat are 12th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while FC Orenburg sit 10th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Akhmat's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Zenit 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
FC Orenburg's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Rodina Moskva 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Akhmat and 1.2 for FC Orenburg. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Akhmat 46%, draw 21%, FC Orenburg 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.71.
Value angle: FC Orenburg to win at 3.80 – 33% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Akhmat 1–1 FC Orenburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Akhmat46%fair 2.17 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.60
FC Orenburg33%fair 3.02 · @3.80
2.62Expected goals
1.45Akhmat xG
1.17FC Orenburg xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Akhmat 1.4 – 1.2 FC Orenburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Akhmat to win✗
46%
2.17
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.71
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.92
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.31
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Akhmat / FT Akhmat✗
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.48
–
Form
Akhmat – last 6
LLDLWD
18 Oct
@ Zenit
2–3
L
14 Oct
vs Dynamo
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Baltika
0–0
D
17 Sep
@ Akron
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
3–2
W
7 Sep
@ Rubin
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FC Orenburg – last 6
DWWLDL
19 Oct
@ Rodina Moskva
2–2
D
15 Oct
@ Rubin
4–1
W
10 Oct
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
4–0
W
3 Oct
@ Lokomotiv
0–2
L
17 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Dynamo
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Akhmat and FC Orenburg.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
On our numbers Akhmat have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FC Orenburg 33%.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
Our predicted score is Akhmat 1–1 FC Orenburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
Akhmat vs FC Orenburg (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
