Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Krylia Sovetov or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Krylia Sovetov to win @ 1.93 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKrylia Sovetov to win ✓65% · @1.93
Double chanceKrylia Sovetov or draw ✓84% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.64
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.96
Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction
The match
Krylia Sovetov host Rodina Moskva in the Premier League on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Samara Arena. Krylia Sovetov are 7th with 18 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Rodina Moskva sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Krylia Sovetov's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with FC Krasnodar 2–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rodina Moskva's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Dinamo Makhachkala 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Krylia Sovetov arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for Krylia Sovetov and 1.0 for Rodina Moskva. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Krylia Sovetov 65%, draw 20%, Rodina Moskva 16%.
Safer route: Krylia Sovetov or draw (84%) at 1.28.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.64.
Value angle: Krylia Sovetov to win at 1.93 – 65% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Krylia Sovetov or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Krylia Sovetov 2–0 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Krylia Sovetov65%fair 1.54 · @1.93
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.74
Rodina Moskva16%fair 6.43 · @3.90
3.18Expected goals
2.20Krylia Sovetov xG
0.98Rodina Moskva xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Krylia Sovetov 2.2 – 1.0 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Krylia Sovetov to win✓
65%
1.54
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Krylia Sovetov or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.64
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.21
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.39
Half-time result
Krylia Sovetov ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Krylia Sovetov / FT Krylia Sovetov✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.96
–
Form
Krylia Sovetov – last 6
DDDWDL
5 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
2–2
D
2 Sep
@ Baltika
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Akhmat
3–3
D
23 Aug
@ Akron
3–0
W
19 Aug
vs Zenit
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LLLLLD
6 Sep
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
0–2
L
2 Sep
@ Spartak Moscow
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Baltika
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Dynamo
1–3
L
18 Aug
vs FC Orenburg
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Akron
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Krylia Sovetov and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Krylia Sovetov or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Krylia Sovetov have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Rodina Moskva 16%.
How many goals will there be in Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Krylia Sovetov 2–0 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Samara Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
