Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Baltika to win @ 2.38 – our chance 48% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBaltika to win ✗48% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.43
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.19
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.69
Fakel vs Baltika preview and prediction
The match
Baltika travel to Fakel Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 12 September (12:00 WAT) to face Fakel. Fakel are 16th with 6 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Baltika sit 9th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fakel's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to FC Rostov 1–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Baltika's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Lokomotiv 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Baltika arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Fakel and 1.3 for Baltika. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fakel 28%, draw 24%, Baltika 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.19.
Value angle: Baltika to win at 2.38 – 48% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Fakel 0–1 Baltika. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel28%fair 3.61 · @3.54
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @2.96
Baltika48%fair 2.07 · @2.38
2.14Expected goals
0.87Fakel xG
1.27Baltika xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–010%
0–210%
1–28%
From our goals model: Fakel 0.9 – 1.3 Baltika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Baltika to win✗
48%
2.07
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.43 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.19 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Baltika / FT Baltika✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.69
–
Form
Fakel – last 6
LDLDLL
5 Sep
@ FC Rostov
1–3
L
1 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Zenit
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs FC Orenburg
0–0
D
18 Aug
@ Akhmat
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ CSKA Moscow
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Baltika – last 6
LDWDDL
6 Sep
vs Lokomotiv
0–1
L
2 Sep
vs Krylia Sovetov
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Rodina Moskva
3–0
W
24 Aug
vs Rubin
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Spartak Moscow
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Baltika.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Fakel vs Baltika?
On our numbers Fakel have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Baltika 48%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Baltika?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Baltika?
Our predicted score is Fakel 0–1 Baltika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel vs Baltika (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
