Value bet: Rodina Moskva to win @ 3.96 – our chance 28% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBaltika to win ✓51% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Rodina Moskva vs Baltika preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Rodina Moskva take on Baltika on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Arena Khimki. Rodina Moskva are 13th with 12 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Baltika sit 9th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Rodina Moskva's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Dynamo 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Baltika's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Rubin 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.3 for Rodina Moskva and 1.8 for Baltika. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rodina Moskva 28%, draw 21%, Baltika 51%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.78.
Value angle: Rodina Moskva to win at 3.96 – 28% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Rodina Moskva 1–1 Baltika. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rodina Moskva28%fair 3.52 · @3.96
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.55
Baltika51%fair 1.97 · @1.97
3.06Expected goals
1.27Rodina Moskva xG
1.79Baltika xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–210%
0–18%
0–28%
2–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Rodina Moskva 1.3 – 1.8 Baltika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Baltika to win✓
51%
1.97
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.78
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.96 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Baltika / FT Baltika✓
30%
3.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.49
–
Form
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LLDWWL
23 Aug
@ Dynamo
1–3
L
18 Aug
vs FC Orenburg
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Akron
3–3
D
9 Aug
@ Zenit
2–1
W
4 Aug
vs Rubin
5–0
W
31 Jul
vs FC Rostov
2–4
L
2.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Baltika – last 6
DDLWLW
24 Aug
vs Rubin
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Spartak Moscow
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Krylia Sovetov
2–0
W
5 Aug
@ Zenit
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Dynamo
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodina Moskva and Baltika.
What is the prediction for Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
On our numbers Rodina Moskva have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Baltika 51%.
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
Our predicted score is Rodina Moskva 1–1 Baltika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Rodina Moskva vs Baltika?
Rodina Moskva vs Baltika (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Khimki.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
