Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 58% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultZenit to win ✗72% · @1.14
Double chanceZenit or draw ✗90% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.40
Zenit vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction
The match
Zenit host Rodina Moskva in the Premier League on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Gazprom Arena. Zenit are 1st with 31 points from 14 games (top of the table), while Rodina Moskva sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Zenit's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Baltika 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rodina Moskva's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Rubin 5–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Zenit arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.8 for Zenit and 1.1 for Rodina Moskva. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 70% and both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zenit 72%, draw 17%, Rodina Moskva 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 58% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.37. Predicted score: Zenit 2–1 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zenit72%fair 1.38 · @1.14
Draw17%fair 5.81 · @8.70
Rodina Moskva10%fair 9.60 · @21.00
3.85Expected goals
2.79Zenit xG
1.05Rodina Moskva xG
58%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Zenit 2.8 – 1.1 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zenit to win✗
72%
1.38
1.14
Double chance
Zenit or draw✗
90%
1.12
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.37
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.05
Half-time result
Zenit ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zenit / FT Zenit✗
51%
1.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.40
–
Form
Zenit – last 6
WWWDDW
5 Aug
vs Baltika
1–0
W
2 Aug
@ FC Orenburg
3–0
W
25 Jul
@ Akron
5–0
W
18 Jul
vs Spartak Moscow
1–1
D
13 Jul
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
WLLLDW
4 Aug
vs Rubin
5–0
W
31 Jul
vs FC Rostov
2–4
L
25 Jul
@ Spartak Moscow
0–3
L
2 Jul
vs Akron
0–5
L
27 Jun
@ Lokomotiv
0–0
D
8 May
vs Chelyabinsk
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zenit and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Zenit vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Zenit vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Zenit have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Rodina Moskva 10%.
How many goals will there be in Zenit vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zenit vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Zenit 2–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Zenit vs Rodina Moskva?
Zenit vs Rodina Moskva (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Gazprom Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
