Value bet: Fakel to win @ 3.40 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAkhmat to win ✗40% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.39
Fakel vs Akhmat preview and prediction
The match
Akhmat travel to Fakel Stadium in the Premier League on Monday 10 August (17:30 WAT) to face Fakel. Fakel are 16th with 6 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Akhmat sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fakel's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Dynamo 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Akhmat's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with FC Krasnodar 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Akhmat arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Fakel and 1.4 for Akhmat. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fakel 36%, draw 24%, Akhmat 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.92.
Value angle: Fakel to win at 3.40 – 36% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Fakel 1–1 Akhmat. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel36%fair 2.80 · @3.40
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.32
Akhmat40%fair 2.49 · @2.24
2.80Expected goals
1.35Fakel xG
1.45Akhmat xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.4 – 1.4 Akhmat expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Akhmat to win✗
40%
2.49
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.92 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.64
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Akhmat / FT Akhmat✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.39
–
Form
Fakel – last 6
LLLLDW
5 Aug
vs Dynamo
0–1
L
2 Aug
@ FC Krasnodar
2–3
L
25 Jul
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–2
L
15 Jul
@ FC Rostov
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Akron
1–1
D
7 Jul
vs FC Rostov
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Akhmat – last 6
DLDWDW
5 Aug
@ FC Krasnodar
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Spartak Moscow
1–2
L
26 Jul
@ Lokomotiv
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ IMT Novi Beograd
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Novi Pazar
1–1
D
29 Jun
vs Borac Banja Luka
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Akhmat.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
On our numbers Fakel have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Akhmat 40%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Akhmat?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Akhmat?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Akhmat, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Akhmat?
Fakel vs Akhmat (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 10 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
