Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.62 – our chance 57% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +50%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✓81% · @1.02
Double chanceMelbourne Victory or draw ✓95% · fair 1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.62
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗8% · fair 13.03
Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory preview and prediction
The match
Kingborough Lions host Melbourne Victory in the Australia Cup on Sunday 26 July, with kick-off at 08:00 (WAT) at Lightwood Park.
Form guide
Kingborough Lions's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Launceston City 3–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Melbourne Victory's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Sydney 0–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Kingborough Lions arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.8 goals: 1.1 for Kingborough Lions and 3.7 for Melbourne Victory. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 86% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.62 – 57% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Kingborough Lions 1–3 Melbourne Victory. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kingborough Lions5%fair 21.76 · @41.00
Draw14%fair 7.00 · @19.00
Melbourne Victory81%fair 1.23 · @1.02
4.78Expected goals
1.10Kingborough Lions xG
3.67Melbourne Victory xG
57%Both score
86%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–38%
1–47%
0–37%
0–46%
1–26%
0–26%
From our goals model: Kingborough Lions 1.1 – 3.7 Melbourne Victory expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✓
81%
1.23
1.02
Double chance
Melbourne Victory or draw✓
95%
1.05
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
2.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
1.02
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.10
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✓
62%
1.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–3✗
8%
13.03
–
Form
Kingborough Lions – last 6
WWLWDW
18 Jul
@ Launceston City
3–1
W
10 Jul
@ Glenorchy Knights
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Ulverstone
1–2
L
28 Jun
vs Devonport City
2–1
W
21 Jun
vs South Hobart
1–1
D
14 Jun
@ South East Utd.
9–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Melbourne Victory – last 6
LWDDLW
2 May
vs Sydney
0–1
L
25 Apr
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Newcastle Jets
2–2
D
11 Apr
@ Auckland
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kingborough Lions and Melbourne Victory.
What is the prediction for Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
On our numbers Kingborough Lions have a 5% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Melbourne Victory 81%.
How many goals will there be in Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
We expect about 4.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 86% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
Our predicted score is Kingborough Lions 1–3 Melbourne Victory, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.8 goals in total.
When is Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory?
Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory (Australia Cup) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Lightwood Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Weston Bears0
Melbourne City3