Value bet: Paks to win @ 1.88 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaks to win ✓63% · @1.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗70% · @1.38
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗72% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.01
Paks vs Ujpest preview and prediction
The match
Ujpest travel to face Paks in the NB I on Friday 21 August (16:30 WAT). Paks are 5th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Ujpest sit 6th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Paks's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Puskas Academy 2–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Ujpest's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with MTK Budapest 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Ujpest arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.6 for Paks and 1.5 for Ujpest. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paks 63%, draw 16%, Ujpest 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.38.
Value angle: Paks to win at 1.88 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.42, above our fair price of 1.39, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Paks 2–1 Ujpest. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paks63%fair 1.60 · @1.88
Draw16%fair 6.10 · @3.90
Ujpest21%fair 4.77 · @3.35
4.14Expected goals
2.64Paks xG
1.50Ujpest xG
70%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–17%
1–16%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%
From our goals model: Paks 2.6 – 1.5 Ujpest expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paks to win✓
63%
1.60
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Half-time result
Paks ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paks / FT Paks✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.01
–
Form
Paks – last 6
LDLDWL
16 Aug
@ Puskas Academy
2–3
L
9 Aug
vs Budapest Honved
2–2
D
3 Aug
@ Zalaegerszegi TE
2–5
L
30 Jul
@ Panathinaikos
2–2
D
26 Jul
vs Ferencvarosi TC
4–2
W
23 Jul
vs Panathinaikos
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ujpest – last 6
DWWLWD
15 Aug
vs MTK Budapest
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Kisvarda FC
4–2
W
2 Aug
vs Debreceni VSC
4–2
W
24 Jul
@ Nyiregyhaza
1–2
L
18 Jul
vs Radnik Bijeljina
2–0
W
11 Jul
@ Diosgyori VTK
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paks and Ujpest.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Paks vs Ujpest?
On our numbers Paks have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Ujpest 21%.
How many goals will there be in Paks vs Ujpest?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paks vs Ujpest?
Our predicted score is Paks 2–1 Ujpest, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Paks vs Ujpest?
Paks vs Ujpest (NB I) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
