Liga Nacional · GuatemalaMalacateco vs Aurora prediction & analysis
Malacateco to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Malacateco 2.1 – 0.8 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Malacateco are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 12% for Aurora.
Malacateco have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Aurora have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (2.1 for Malacateco, 0.8 for Aurora). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Malacateco have won 0, Aurora have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Malacateco to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is better than our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Malacateco to win ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Malacateco or draw ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Half-time result | Malacateco ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Malacateco / FT Malacateco ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.25 | – |
Form
Malacateco – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Deportivo San Pedro | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs Comunicaciones | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Xelajú | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Guastatoya | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Cobán Imperial | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Marquense | 0–1 | L |
Aurora – last 6
| 26 Oct | @ Suchitepéquez | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Deportivo San Pedro | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Comunicaciones | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Xelajú | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Oct | @ Guastatoya | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Cobán Imperial | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 31 Aug 2026 | Aurora v Malacateco | 1–0 |
| 23 Mar 2026 | Malacateco v Aurora | 1–1 |
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Malacateco vs Aurora?
Our pick is Malacateco to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Malacateco vs Aurora?
On our numbers Malacateco have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aurora 12%.
How many goals will there be in Malacateco vs Aurora?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Malacateco vs Aurora?
Malacateco vs Aurora (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.