Liga Nacional · GuatemalaMixco vs Xelajú prediction & analysis
Mixco or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Mixco to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mixco 2.1 – 1.0 Xelajú expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mixco are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 13% for Xelajú.
Mixco have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Xelajú have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.1 for Mixco, 1.0 for Xelajú). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Mixco have won 0, Xelajú have won 2 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Mixco or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Mixco to win at 1.85 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mixco to win ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Mixco or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Half-time result | Mixco ahead at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mixco / FT Mixco ✗ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.64 | – |
Form
Mixco – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Guastatoya | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Municipal | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Cobán Imperial | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Marquense | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Suchitepéquez | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Antigua GFC | 3–1 | W |
Xelajú – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs Municipal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | @ Antigua GFC | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Malacateco | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Aurora | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Deportivo San Pedro | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Comunicaciones | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 31 Aug 2026 | Xelajú v Mixco | 4–1 |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Xelajú v Mixco | 2–1 |
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mixco vs Xelajú?
Our pick is Mixco or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mixco vs Xelajú?
On our numbers Mixco have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Xelajú 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mixco vs Xelajú?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Mixco vs Xelajú?
Mixco vs Xelajú (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.