Liga Nacional · GuatemalaMalacateco vs Guastatoya prediction & analysis
Malacateco or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Malacateco 1.7 – 0.9 Guastatoya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Malacateco hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 19% for Guastatoya.
Malacateco have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Guastatoya have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Guastatoya come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.7 for Malacateco, 0.9 for Guastatoya). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%).
In their last 3 meetings, Malacateco have won 1, Guastatoya have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.
Our pick is Malacateco or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.00 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Malacateco to win ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.85 |
| Double chance | Malacateco or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Malacateco / FT Malacateco ✗ | 35% | 2.84 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.02 | – |
Form
Malacateco – last 6
| 3 Oct | @ Cobán Imperial | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Marquense | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Mixco | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Municipal | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs Antigua GFC | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Suchitepéquez | 2–0 | W |
Guastatoya – last 6
| 5 Oct | vs Aurora | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Deportivo San Pedro | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Comunicaciones | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs Xelajú | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | @ Suchitepéquez | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Cobán Imperial | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 2 Aug 2026 | Guastatoya v Malacateco | 4–0 |
| 3 Apr 2026 | Malacateco v Guastatoya | 1–0 |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Guastatoya v Malacateco | 1–1 |
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
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Suchitepéquez3
Deportivo San Pedro2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
Our pick is Malacateco or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
On our numbers Malacateco have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guastatoya 19%.
How many goals will there be in Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
Malacateco vs Guastatoya (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.