Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuastatoya to win ✓65% · @1.40
Double chanceGuastatoya or draw ✓88% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.41
Guastatoya vs Aurora preview and prediction
The match
Aurora travel to face Guastatoya in the Liga Nacional on Monday 5 October (00:00 WAT). Guastatoya are 7th with 31 points from 22 games (in the bottom half), while Aurora sit 11th on 20 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Guastatoya's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Deportivo San Pedro 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Aurora's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Cobán Imperial 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Guastatoya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 July 2026, finished Aurora 0–1 Guastatoya. Across their last 2 meetings Guastatoya have won 2, Aurora 0, with 0 draws and 1.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Guastatoya and 0.8 for Aurora. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 56% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guastatoya to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Guastatoya 2–0 Aurora. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guastatoya65%fair 1.53 · @1.40
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @4.00
Aurora12%fair 8.10 · @7.00
2.91Expected goals
2.09Guastatoya xG
0.82Aurora xG
56%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Guastatoya 2.1 – 0.8 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Guastatoya to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Guastatoya vs Aurora?
On our numbers Guastatoya have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aurora 12%.
How many goals will there be in Guastatoya vs Aurora?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guastatoya vs Aurora?
Our predicted score is Guastatoya 2–0 Aurora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Guastatoya vs Aurora?
Guastatoya vs Aurora (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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