Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.40
Ulaanbaatar vs Deren preview and prediction
The match
Ulaanbaatar host Deren in the Premier League on Monday 6 July, with kick-off at 05:00 (WAT). Ulaanbaatar are 1st with 54 points from 23 games, while Deren sit 3rd on 45 points.
Form guide
Ulaanbaatar's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Khangarid 4–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Deren's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Central Stallions 3–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deren arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 June 2026, finished Deren 0–2 Ulaanbaatar. Across their last 2 meetings Ulaanbaatar have won 2, Deren 0, with 0 draws and 2.0 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 2.3 for Ulaanbaatar and 1.9 for Deren. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ulaanbaatar 49%, draw 19%, Deren 33%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 3.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Ulaanbaatar 2–2 Deren. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ulaanbaatar49%fair 2.05 · @2.05
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @3.90
Deren33%fair 3.07 · @2.65
4.25Expected goals
2.34Ulaanbaatar xG
1.91Deren xG
60%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
2–27%
1–16%
1–26%
3–16%
3–26%
From our goals model: Ulaanbaatar 2.3 – 1.9 Deren expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
On our numbers Ulaanbaatar have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deren 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
Our predicted score is Ulaanbaatar 2–2 Deren, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
Ulaanbaatar vs Deren (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 6 July 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
