Value bet: Charleroi to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCharleroi to win57% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score67% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals66% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.65
Charleroi vs St. Truiden preview and prediction
The match
Charleroi host St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League on Saturday 21 November, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Charleroi are 4th with 27 points from 11 games (in the top four), while St. Truiden sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Charleroi's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat KVC Westerlo 5–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
St. Truiden's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Zulte Waregem 4–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.3 for Charleroi and 1.3 for St. Truiden. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Charleroi 57%, draw 20%, St. Truiden 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Charleroi to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Both teams to score – a 67% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Charleroi 2–1 St. Truiden. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Charleroi57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.60
St. Truiden23%fair 4.37 · @3.30
3.61Expected goals
2.32Charleroi xG
1.29St. Truiden xG
67%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–07%
3–17%
1–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Charleroi 2.3 – 1.3 St. Truiden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Charleroi
St. Truiden
Attack vs Jupiler Pro League average
+26%
+18%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
+11%
Our expected goals here
2.56
1.28
Our own ratings from every Jupiler Pro League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Charleroi to win
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
67%
1.50
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
85%
1.17
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
66%
1.53
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.57
Half-time result
Charleroi ahead at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Charleroi / FT Charleroi
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.65
–
Form
Charleroi – last 6
WWLDWW
7 Nov
@ KVC Westerlo
5–1
W
1 Nov
vs RAAL La Louvière
5–2
W
24 Oct
@ Antwerp
0–3
L
17 Oct
@ Albert Quévy-Mons
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Standard Liege
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Cercle Brugge
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
St. Truiden – last 6
WDLLWW
8 Nov
vs Zulte Waregem
4–1
W
5 Nov
vs Brann
1–1
D
1 Nov
vs OH Leuven
1–2
L
25 Oct
@ Club Brugge KV
2–3
L
22 Oct
@ FC Midtjylland
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Lommel United
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charleroi and St. Truiden.
What is the prediction for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
On our numbers Charleroi have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 20% and St. Truiden 23%.
How many goals will there be in Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Our predicted score is Charleroi 2–1 St. Truiden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi vs St. Truiden (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
