St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Union St. Gilloise or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Union St. Gilloise to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion St. Gilloise to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceUnion St. Gilloise or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.14
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise preview and prediction
The match
St. Truiden host Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League on Wednesday 2 September, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Daio Wasabi Stayen. St. Truiden are 12th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Union St. Gilloise sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
St. Truiden's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Antwerp 4–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Union St. Gilloise's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Anderlecht 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.0 for St. Truiden and 2.2 for Union St. Gilloise. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: St. Truiden 17%, draw 20%, Union St. Gilloise 63%.
Safer route: Union St. Gilloise or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Union St. Gilloise to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Union St. Gilloise or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: St. Truiden 1–2 Union St. Gilloise. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
St. Truiden17%fair 5.88 · @3.70
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @3.45
Union St. Gilloise63%fair 1.58 · @1.95
3.23Expected goals
1.04St. Truiden xG
2.19Union St. Gilloise xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–29%
1–19%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: St. Truiden 1.0 – 2.2 Union St. Gilloise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union St. Gilloise to win✓
63%
1.58
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Union St. Gilloise or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.40
Half-time result
Union St. Gilloise ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.14
–
Form
St. Truiden – last 6
WLWDDL
30 Aug
@ Antwerp
4–1
W
27 Aug
@ Omonia Nicosia
2–4
L
20 Aug
vs Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Cercle Brugge
3–3
D
8 Aug
vs Lommel United
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ AEK Athens FC
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
WDDWDD
30 Aug
vs Anderlecht
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Zulte Waregem
0–0
D
11 Aug
@ BodoGlimt
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ KVC Westerlo
5–1
W
4 Aug
vs BodoGlimt
3–3
D
31 Jul
@ Club Brugge KV
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise.
What is the prediction for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our pick is Union St. Gilloise or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
On our numbers St. Truiden have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Union St. Gilloise 63%.
How many goals will there be in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our predicted score is St. Truiden 1–2 Union St. Gilloise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
