Antwerp vs Genk prediction & analysis

Very little separates Antwerp and Genk on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Antwerp have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. Genk have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.

We expect around 3.1 goals (1.6 for Antwerp, 1.5 for Genk). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).

In their last 2 meetings, Antwerp have won 0, Genk have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Antwerp to win at 3.10 is our value angle (41% on our numbers).