Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Stade du Pays de CharleroiCharleroi vs KV Mechelen prediction & analysis
Charleroi or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Charleroi to win @ 1.77 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Charleroi 2.1 – 0.9 KV Mechelen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Charleroi are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 14% for KV Mechelen.
Charleroi have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 per game. KV Mechelen have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Charleroi come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 for Charleroi, 0.9 for KV Mechelen). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Charleroi or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Charleroi to win at 1.77 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Charleroi to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.77 ▲ |
| Double chance | Charleroi or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Charleroi ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Charleroi / FT Charleroi ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✓ | 11% | 9.42 | – |
Form
Charleroi – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Lommel United | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs OH Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Jul | vs Seraing United | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Jul | @ Feyenoord | 1–3 | L |
KV Mechelen – last 6
| 16 Aug | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Dunkerque | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Jul | @ Willem II | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Jul | vs ADO Den Haag | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Jul | @ Heist | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charleroi and KV Mechelen.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union St. Gilloise | 11 | +23 | 29 |
| 2 |  Club Brugge KV | 11 | +18 | 28 |
| 3 |  Gent | 11 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 |  Charleroi | 11 | +13 | 27 |
| 5 |  Anderlecht | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 6 |  Lommel United | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Genk | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Standard Liege | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  KVC Westerlo | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 |  OH Leuven | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  KV Mechelen | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 12 |  St. Truiden | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 |  Antwerp | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 |  Zulte Waregem | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 |  SK Beveren | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 |  Cercle Brugge | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 |  RAAL La Louvière | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 11 | -19 | 4 |
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Our pick is Charleroi or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
On our numbers Charleroi have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and KV Mechelen 14%.
How many goals will there be in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?
Charleroi vs KV Mechelen (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.