First League · Montenegro · Stadion pod VrmcemBokelj vs Dečić prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.91 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
Value bet: Bokelj to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bokelj 1.0 – 0.8 Dečić expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bokelj hold the edge on home soil with a 44% chance of winning, against 33% for Dečić.
Bokelj have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 per game. Dečić have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 0.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Bokelj come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.8 goals (1.0 for Bokelj, 0.8 for Dečić). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (17%), 1–0 (17%), 0–1 (13%).
In their last 2 meetings, Bokelj have won 1, Dečić have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 52% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is close to our fair price of 1.91. For a bigger price, Bokelj to win at 2.62 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bokelj to win ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 25% | 3.99 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.91 | – |
Form
Bokelj – last 6
| 19 Oct | @ Sutjeska | 0–4 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Buducnost Podgorica | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Mladost DG | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | @ Jezero | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | vs Otrant-Olympic | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | @ Mornar | 0–2 | L |
Dečić – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Buducnost Podgorica | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | @ Sutjeska | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Mornar | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Sutjeska | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs Petrovac | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Mladost DG | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 17 Aug 2026 | Dečić v Bokelj | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | Bokelj v Dečić | 1–0 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Otrant-Olympic | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Buducnost Podgorica | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 3 |  Mornar | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Sutjeska | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Dečić | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Bokelj | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 |  Petrovac | 14 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Jezero | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 |  Mladost DG | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 10 |  Arsenal Tivat | 14 | -10 | 9 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bokelj vs Dečić?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Bokelj vs Dečić?
On our numbers Bokelj have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dečić 33%.
How many goals will there be in Bokelj vs Dečić?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Bokelj vs Dečić?
Bokelj vs Dečić (First League) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion pod Vrmcem.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.