First League · Montenegro · Stadion GradskiSutjeska vs Mornar prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.95 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
Value bet: Mornar to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sutjeska 0.9 – 1.1 Mornar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Mornar shade it despite being away from home – 42% to win, against 33% for Sutjeska.
Sutjeska have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Mornar have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. Mornar come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.9 for Sutjeska, 1.1 for Mornar). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 2 meetings, Sutjeska have won 0, Mornar have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.95. For a bigger price, Mornar to win at 2.80 is our value angle (42% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mornar to win ✗ | 42% | 2.36 | 2.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.53 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mornar / FT Mornar ✗ | 23% | 4.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.06 | – |
Form
Sutjeska – last 6
| 4 Sep | @ Petrovac | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs Mladost DG | 5–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Jezero | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Otrant-Olympic | 1–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | @ Bokelj | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | vs Buducnost Podgorica | 0–1 | L |
Mornar – last 6
| 3 Sep | vs Bokelj | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Petrovac | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Buducnost Podgorica | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Mladost DG | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Aug | vs Arsenal Tivat | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Aug | @ Jezero | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 8 Apr 2026 | Mornar v Sutjeska | 2–1 |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Sutjeska v Mornar | 2–2 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Otrant-Olympic | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Buducnost Podgorica | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 3 |  Mornar | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Sutjeska | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Dečić | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Bokelj | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 |  Petrovac | 14 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Jezero | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 |  Mladost DG | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 10 |  Arsenal Tivat | 14 | -10 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sutjeska vs Mornar?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Sutjeska vs Mornar?
On our numbers Sutjeska have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mornar 42%.
How many goals will there be in Sutjeska vs Mornar?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Sutjeska vs Mornar?
Sutjeska vs Mornar (First League) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Gradski.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.