First League · Montenegro · TuskoDečić vs Jezero prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Dečić 1.2 – 0.5 Jezero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Dečić hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 20% for Jezero.
Dečić have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.5 per game. Jezero have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 1.8 goals (1.2 for Dečić, 0.5 for Jezero). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (22%), 0–0 (17%), 2–0 (13%).
In their last 1 meeting, Dečić have won 1, Jezero have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is better than our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dečić to win ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.65 |
| Double chance | Dečić or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Dečić / FT Dečić ✗ | 32% | 3.13 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 22% | 4.62 | – |
Form
Dečić – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Otrant-Olympic | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | vs Bokelj | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Buducnost Podgorica | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | vs Arsenal Tivat | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Jul | vs FK Liepaja | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Jul | @ FK Liepaja | 0–1 | L |
Jezero – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Sutjeska | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ Petrovac | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | vs Mladost DG | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | vs Mornar | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Jun | @ Iskra | 5–1 | W |
| 29 May | vs Iskra | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 11 Mar 2026 | Jezero v Dečić | 1–2 |
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Otrant-Olympic | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Buducnost Podgorica | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 3 |  Mornar | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Sutjeska | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Dečić | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Bokelj | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 |  Petrovac | 14 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Jezero | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 9 |  Mladost DG | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 10 |  Arsenal Tivat | 14 | -10 | 9 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Dečić vs Jezero?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Dečić vs Jezero?
On our numbers Dečić have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Jezero 20%.
How many goals will there be in Dečić vs Jezero?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
When is Dečić vs Jezero?
Dečić vs Jezero (First League) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Tusko.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.