I Liga · Poland · Stadion ROSRRiT
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @ 2.94 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pogoń Siedlce 1.3 – 1.3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Pogoń Siedlce have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 per game. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Pogoń Siedlce, 1.3 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 2 meetings, Pogoń Siedlce have won 1, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win at 2.94 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pogoń Siedlce to win ✓ | 40% | 2.50 | 2.09 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pogoń Siedlce / FT Pogoń Siedlce ✓ | 22% | 4.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.09 | – |
Form
Pogoń Siedlce – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs Ruch Chorzów | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Oct | @ Tychy 71 | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ Odra Opole | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Stal Rzeszów | 3–4 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Puszcza Niepołomice | 1–3 | L |
| 9 Oct | @ Podbeskidzie | 0–1 | L |
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki – last 6
| 30 Oct | vs Stal Mielec | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Ruch Chorzów | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Polonia Warszawa | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Chrobry Głogów | 4–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | @ Radomiak Radom | 2–7 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs ŁKS Łódź | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 11 Jul 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Pogoń Siedlce | 2–2 |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Pogoń Siedlce | 0–2 |
More I Liga predictions
Polonia Bytom1
Lechia Gdansk0
O2.5Over 2.5 goals
65%@1.40
✗
FT
ŁKS Łódź1
Stal Rzeszów0
1ŁKS Łódź to win
67%@1.60
✓
FT
Stal Mielec2
Ruch Chorzów0
2Ruch Chorzów to win
63%@1.67
✗
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
On our numbers Pogoń Siedlce have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 37%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion ROSRRiT.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.