Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Warta Poznań to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWarta Poznań to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań preview and prediction
The match
Stal Mielec host Warta Poznań in the I Liga on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu. Stal Mielec are 11th with 19 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Warta Poznań sit 9th on 19 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Stal Mielec's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Lechia Gdansk 1–7 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Warta Poznań's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Chrobry Głogów 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Warta Poznań arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.6 for Stal Mielec and 2.1 for Warta Poznań. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 66%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Stal Mielec 31%, draw 21%, Warta Poznań 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Warta Poznań to win at 2.25 – 48% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Stal Mielec 1–2 Warta Poznań. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stal Mielec31%fair 3.24 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.30
Warta Poznań48%fair 2.06 · @2.25
3.72Expected goals
1.64Stal Mielec xG
2.08Warta Poznań xG
66%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
0–25%
From our goals model: Stal Mielec 1.6 – 2.1 Warta Poznań expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Warta Poznań to win✗
48%
2.06
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.53
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Warta Poznań ahead at half-time✗
38%
2.62
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Warta Poznań / FT Warta Poznań✗
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.62
–
Form
Stal Mielec – last 6
LLDDLL
19 Sep
@ Lechia Gdansk
1–7
L
14 Sep
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Odra Opole
1–1
D
2 Sep
@ Górnik Łęczna
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Pogoń Siedlce
0–2
L
23 Aug
@ ŁKS Łódź
0–4
L
0.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Warta Poznań – last 6
WWWLLW
3 Oct
@ Chrobry Głogów
3–1
W
18 Sep
vs Puszcza Niepołomice
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Arka Gdynia
3–0
W
4 Sep
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Miedz Legnica
1–2
L
21 Aug
@ Chrobry Głogów
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań.
What is the prediction for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
On our numbers Stal Mielec have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Warta Poznań 48%.
How many goals will there be in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our predicted score is Stal Mielec 1–2 Warta Poznań, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań (I Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
