Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Lechia Gdansk to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLechia Gdansk to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec preview and prediction
The match
Lechia Gdansk host Stal Mielec in the I Liga on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT) at Polsat Plus Arena. Lechia Gdansk are 4th with 22 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Stal Mielec sit 11th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lechia Gdansk's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Miedz Legnica 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Stal Mielec's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Nieciecza 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Lechia Gdansk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.2 for Stal Mielec. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lechia Gdansk 63%, draw 13%, Stal Mielec 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lechia Gdansk to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal Mielec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lechia Gdansk63%fair 1.58 · @1.95
Draw13%fair 7.46 · @3.50
Stal Mielec23%fair 4.29 · @3.10
3.31Expected goals
2.15Lechia Gdansk xG
1.16Stal Mielec xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Lechia Gdansk 2.1 – 1.2 Stal Mielec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lechia Gdansk to win✓
63%
1.58
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
87%
1.15
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Lechia Gdansk ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lechia Gdansk / FT Lechia Gdansk✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.22
–
Form
Lechia Gdansk – last 6
WLWWWL
13 Sep
vs Miedz Legnica
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Nieciecza
1–2
L
1 Sep
@ Kluczbork
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Polonia Warszawa
4–2
W
21 Aug
vs Pogoń Siedlce
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Ruch Chorzów
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Stal Mielec – last 6
LDDLLW
14 Sep
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Odra Opole
1–1
D
2 Sep
@ Górnik Łęczna
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Pogoń Siedlce
0–2
L
23 Aug
@ ŁKS Łódź
0–4
L
16 Aug
vs Polonia Bytom
5–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec.
What is the prediction for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our pick is Lechia Gdansk to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
On our numbers Lechia Gdansk have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Stal Mielec 23%.
How many goals will there be in Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our predicted score is Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal Mielec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec (I Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Polsat Plus Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
