Value bet: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win @ 2.60 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win ✗42% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.99
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza preview and prediction
The match
The I Liga sees Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki take on Nieciecza on Friday 28 August, kicking off at 17:15 (WAT) at Stadion Miejski. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th with 21 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Nieciecza sit 6th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Polonia Bytom 2–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nieciecza's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Polonia Warszawa 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.3 for Nieciecza. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win at 2.60 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Nieciecza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki42%fair 2.38 · @2.60
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.50
Nieciecza35%fair 2.82 · @2.35
2.78Expected goals
1.46Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki xG
1.31Nieciecza xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.5 – 1.3 Nieciecza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win✗
42%
2.38
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / FT Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.99
–
Form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki – last 6
DDWWWL
22 Aug
@ Polonia Bytom
2–2
D
14 Aug
vs Stal Rzeszów
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Miedz Legnica
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Puszcza Niepołomice
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Lechia Gdansk
3–0
W
18 Jul
@ Legia Warszawa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nieciecza – last 6
LLLWWL
22 Aug
vs Polonia Warszawa
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ ŁKS Łódź
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Warta Poznań
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Pogoń Siedlce
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Ruch Chorzów
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Busko-Zdroj
1–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Nieciecza.
What is the prediction for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
On our numbers Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nieciecza 35%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
Our predicted score is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Nieciecza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza (I Liga) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Miejski.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
