Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultOlimpija Ljubljana to win ✓60% · @1.62
Double chanceOlimpija Ljubljana or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓20% · fair 5.03
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij preview and prediction
The match
Olimpija Ljubljana host Aluminij in the 1. SNL on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at Stadion Stozice. Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th with 23 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Aluminij sit 7th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Olimpija Ljubljana's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Mura 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Aluminij's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Dinamo Tirana 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.4 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 0.6 for Aluminij. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Olimpija Ljubljana 60%, draw 23%, Aluminij 17%.
Safer route: Olimpija Ljubljana or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 57% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.30, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Aluminij. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Olimpija Ljubljana60%fair 1.67 · @1.62
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.95
Aluminij17%fair 5.87 · @4.50
1.95Expected goals
1.39Olimpija Ljubljana xG
0.55Aluminij xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–014%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.4 – 0.6 Aluminij expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Olimpija Ljubljana to win✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Double chance
Olimpija Ljubljana or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.40 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Olimpija Ljubljana / FT Olimpija Ljubljana✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
20%
5.03
–
Form
Olimpija Ljubljana – last 6
LLLDLW
25 Jul
@ Mura
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Bravo
0–2
L
11 Jul
vs LNZ Cherkasy
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs CFR 1907 Cluj
1–1
D
28 Jun
vs Cukaricki
0–3
L
23 Jun
vs Vllaznia Shkodër
4–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aluminij – last 6
LDDLDL
30 Jul
@ Dinamo Tirana
0–3
L
23 Jul
vs Dinamo Tirana
1–1
D
19 Jul
vs Maribor
0–0
D
16 Jul
vs Sheriff Tiraspol
0–1
L
9 Jul
@ Sheriff Tiraspol
0–0
D
2 Jul
vs FK Partizan
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Olimpija Ljubljana and Aluminij.
What is the prediction for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij?
On our numbers Olimpija Ljubljana have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aluminij 17%.
How many goals will there be in Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij?
Our predicted score is Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Aluminij, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij?
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij (1. SNL) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Stozice.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
