Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartans to win ✗66% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Spartans vs Kelty Hearts preview and prediction
The match
Spartans host Kelty Hearts in the League Two on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Ainslie Park. Spartans are 4th with 18 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Kelty Hearts sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Spartans's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Dundee II 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kelty Hearts's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Montrose 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.6 for Spartans and 1.3 for Kelty Hearts. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Spartans to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spartans 2–1 Kelty Hearts. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartans66%fair 1.52 · @1.75
Draw15%fair 6.68 · @4.00
Kelty Hearts19%fair 5.22 · @3.80
3.94Expected goals
2.60Spartans xG
1.34Kelty Hearts xG
67%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
2–07%
2–26%
3–06%
From our goals model: Spartans 2.6 – 1.3 Kelty Hearts expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartans to win✗
66%
1.52
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.57 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Spartans ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartans / FT Spartans✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Form
Spartans – last 6
WDLWLW
25 Sep
vs Dundee II
1–0
W
22 Sep
@ Gala Fairydean Rovers
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Dumbarton
0–3
L
12 Sep
vs Forfar Athletic
5–1
W
8 Sep
vs Hamilton Academical
0–4
L
5 Sep
@ Stirling Albion
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kelty Hearts – last 6
WLLLWW
26 Sep
vs Montrose
2–1
W
22 Sep
vs Hearts U21
3–5
L
19 Sep
vs Edinburgh City
1–3
L
12 Sep
@ Clyde
1–4
L
8 Sep
@ Cumbernauld Colts
3–0
W
5 Sep
vs Annan Athletic
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartans and Kelty Hearts.
What is the prediction for Spartans vs Kelty Hearts?
Our pick is Spartans to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Spartans vs Kelty Hearts?
On our numbers Spartans have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Kelty Hearts 19%.
How many goals will there be in Spartans vs Kelty Hearts?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartans vs Kelty Hearts?
Our predicted score is Spartans 2–1 Kelty Hearts, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Spartans vs Kelty Hearts?
Spartans vs Kelty Hearts (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Ainslie Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
