Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Elgin City to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultElgin City to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceElgin City or draw ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Dumbarton vs Elgin City preview and prediction
The match
Dumbarton host Elgin City in the League Two on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Dumbarton Football Stadium. Dumbarton are 6th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Elgin City sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Dumbarton's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Annan Athletic 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Elgin City's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Stirling Albion 4–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Elgin City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.1 for Dumbarton and 2.3 for Elgin City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dumbarton 18%, draw 20%, Elgin City 62%.
Safer route: Elgin City or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Elgin City to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Elgin City or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Dumbarton 1–2 Elgin City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dumbarton18%fair 5.62 · @3.80
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.40
Elgin City62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
3.40Expected goals
1.14Dumbarton xG
2.26Elgin City xG
64%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–29%
0–18%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Dumbarton 1.1 – 2.3 Elgin City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Elgin City to win✗
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Elgin City or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Elgin City ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Elgin City / FT Elgin City✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.29
–
Form
Dumbarton – last 6
LDLLLW
29 Aug
@ Annan Athletic
0–2
L
25 Aug
vs Celtic II
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Kelty Hearts
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Edinburgh City
0–3
L
11 Aug
vs Airdrie United
1–3
L
8 Aug
vs Clyde
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Elgin City – last 6
WWDWLD
29 Aug
vs Stirling Albion
4–0
W
25 Aug
@ Clachnacuddin
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Spartans
3–3
D
15 Aug
vs Kelty Hearts
4–1
W
11 Aug
vs Ross County
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Forfar Athletic
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dumbarton and Elgin City.
What is the prediction for Dumbarton vs Elgin City?
Our pick is Elgin City or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Dumbarton vs Elgin City?
On our numbers Dumbarton have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Elgin City 62%.
How many goals will there be in Dumbarton vs Elgin City?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dumbarton vs Elgin City?
Our predicted score is Dumbarton 1–2 Elgin City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Dumbarton vs Elgin City?
Dumbarton vs Elgin City (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Dumbarton Football Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
