Premier League · England · Stadium of Light

Sunderland

LLWDD

1–0

Chelsea

WDLWW

Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction & analysis

78%

Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗

9/10Rating

1.25Odds

Value bet: Chelsea to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultChelsea to win ✗58% · @1.91

Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.09

Win chances

Sunderland22%fair 4.55 · @3.75

Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.75

Chelsea58%fair 1.73 · @1.91

3.00Expected goals

1.08Sunderland xG

1.92Chelsea xG

60%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–110%

1–210%

0–110%

0–29%

1–36%

0–36%

From our goals model: Sunderland 1.1 – 1.9 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Chelsea shade it despite being away from home – 58% to win, against 22% for Sunderland.

Sunderland have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 per game. Chelsea have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded. Chelsea come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.0 goals (1.1 for Sunderland, 1.9 for Chelsea). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Sunderland have won 1, Chelsea have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Chelsea to win at 1.91 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Chelsea to win ✗	58%	1.73	1.91 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	80%	1.25	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	60%	1.68	1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	78%	1.28	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	55%	1.81	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	66%	1.51	1.40
Half-time result	Chelsea ahead at half-time ✗	42%	2.38	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea ✗	36%	2.80	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	10%	10.09	–

Form

Sunderland – last 6

LLWDDL

5 Nov	vs Dinamo Zagreb	0–2	L
31 Oct	@ Coventry	1–3	L
28 Oct	vs Brentford	3–2	W
25 Oct	vs Leeds	0–0	D
22 Oct	@ Lech Poznan	1–1	D
18 Oct	@ Bournemouth	0–2	L

0.8Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Chelsea – last 6

WDLWWL

31 Oct	vs Manchester United	2–0	W
28 Oct	@ Liverpool	1–1	D
24 Oct	vs Tottenham	0–2	L
17 Oct	@ Everton	2–0	W
10 Oct	vs Bournemouth	5–1	W
18 Sep	@ Brentford	0–3	L

1.7Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 May 2026

Sunderland v Chelsea

2–1

Premier League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7

More Premier League predictions

League hub →

Brighton2

Brentford0 592319 1XBrighton or draw 81%@1.25 ✓ FT

Crystal Palace1

Liverpool3 132265 2Liverpool to win 65%@1.57 ✓ FT

Ipswich1

Bournemouth2 132364 X2Bournemouth or draw 87%@1.25 ✓ FT

Manchester United4

Aston Villa4 432136 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.67 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?

On our numbers Sunderland have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chelsea 58%.

How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Chelsea?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

When is Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Sunderland vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium of Light.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.