Premier League · England · Old Trafford

Manchester United

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4–4

Aston Villa

LDLWW

Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction & analysis

62%

Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating

1.67Odds

Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultManchester United to win ✗43% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.44

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.14

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35

Win chances

Manchester United43%fair 2.34 · @2.10

Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.90

Aston Villa36%fair 2.77 · @3.10

2.94Expected goals

1.54Manchester United xG

1.39Aston Villa xG

64%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%

2–19%

1–08%

1–28%

0–17%

2–06%

From our goals model: Manchester United 1.5 – 1.4 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Manchester United and Aston Villa on our numbers – 43% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Manchester United have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.3 per game. Aston Villa have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded. Aston Villa come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.9 goals (1.5 for Manchester United, 1.4 for Aston Villa). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Manchester United have won 1, Aston Villa have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is better than our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Aston Villa to win at 3.10 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Manchester United to win ✗	43%	2.34	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	79%	1.27	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	64%	1.57	1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	59%	1.69	1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	62%	1.63	1.67
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	40%	2.49	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Manchester United / FT Manchester United ✗	24%	4.10	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.35	–

Form

Manchester United – last 6

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3 Nov	vs AS Roma	3–2	W
31 Oct	@ Chelsea	0–2	L
25 Oct	vs Bournemouth	0–3	L
21 Oct	@ Como	1–4	L
18 Oct	@ Leeds	1–1	D
13 Oct	@ Atletico Madrid	0–2	L

0.8Scored / game

2.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Aston Villa – last 6

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3 Nov	@ Barcelona	0–3	L
31 Oct	vs Fulham	1–1	D
28 Oct	@ Bournemouth	0–3	L
24 Oct	vs Manchester City	2–1	W
21 Oct	vs Viking	3–1	W
17 Oct	@ Newcastle	1–0	W

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Head to head

15 Mar 2026

Manchester United v Aston Villa

3–1

Premier League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7

More Premier League predictions

League hub →

Brighton2

Brentford0 592319 1XBrighton or draw 81%@1.25 ✓ FT

Crystal Palace1

Liverpool3 132265 2Liverpool to win 65%@1.57 ✓ FT

Ipswich1

Bournemouth2 132364 X2Bournemouth or draw 87%@1.25 ✓ FT

Sunderland1

Chelsea0 222058 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

On our numbers Manchester United have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 36%.

How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

When is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Manchester United vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Old Trafford.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.