Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Newcastle to win @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewcastle to win ✗51% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.44
Coventry vs Newcastle preview and prediction
The match
Newcastle travel to Coventry Building Society Arena in the Premier League on Monday 12 October (20:00 WAT) to face Coventry. Coventry are 17th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Newcastle sit 12th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Coventry's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Nottingham Forest 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Newcastle's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Hull City 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Newcastle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Coventry and 1.7 for Newcastle. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Newcastle to win at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Coventry 1–1 Newcastle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coventry28%fair 3.55 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.50
Newcastle51%fair 1.95 · @2.15
2.90Expected goals
1.19Coventry xG
1.71Newcastle xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Coventry 1.2 – 1.7 Newcastle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✗
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
30%
3.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.44
–
Form
Coventry – last 6
WLLLLW
19 Sep
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Brighton
0–5
L
5 Sep
@ Manchester City
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Hull City
0–1
L
25 Aug
@ Plymouth
4–2
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Newcastle – last 6
WLWDWW
19 Sep
vs Hull City
2–1
W
14 Sep
@ Leeds
1–4
L
8 Sep
@ Millwall
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
26 Aug
vs West Brom
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coventry and Newcastle.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Coventry vs Newcastle?
On our numbers Coventry have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Newcastle 51%.
How many goals will there be in Coventry vs Newcastle?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coventry vs Newcastle?
Our predicted score is Coventry 1–1 Newcastle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Coventry vs Newcastle?
Coventry vs Newcastle (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Coventry Building Society Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
