Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Newcastle to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeeds to win ✓39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.74
Leeds vs Newcastle preview and prediction
The match
Leeds host Newcastle in the Premier League on Monday 14 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Elland Road. Leeds are 9th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Newcastle sit 12th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leeds's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to Chelsea 3–6 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Newcastle's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Millwall 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Leeds and 1.2 for Newcastle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leeds 39%, draw 23%, Newcastle 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Newcastle to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Leeds 1–1 Newcastle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leeds39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.40
Newcastle38%fair 2.60 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.25Leeds xG
1.25Newcastle xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leeds 1.3 – 1.2 Newcastle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leeds to win✓
39%
2.59
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leeds / FT Leeds✓
21%
4.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.74
–
Form
Leeds – last 6
LDDWWW
9 Sep
@ Chelsea
3–6
L
5 Sep
@ Brighton
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Brentford
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Nottingham Forest
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs FC Augsburg
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Newcastle – last 6
WDWWDD
8 Sep
@ Millwall
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
26 Aug
vs West Brom
3–2
W
23 Aug
vs Liverpool
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Strasbourg
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leeds and Newcastle.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Leeds vs Newcastle?
On our numbers Leeds have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Newcastle 38%.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Newcastle?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our predicted score is Leeds 1–1 Newcastle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Leeds vs Newcastle?
Leeds vs Newcastle (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Elland Road.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
