Value bet: Leeds to win @ 3.05 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNottingham Forest to win ✗39% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Nottingham Forest take on Leeds on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at City Ground. Nottingham Forest are 16th with 9 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Leeds sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Nottingham Forest's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Stade Brestois 29 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Leeds's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat FC Augsburg 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leeds arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Nottingham Forest and 1.3 for Leeds. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Leeds to win at 3.05 – 37% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Leeds. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nottingham Forest39%fair 2.58 · @2.28
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Leeds37%fair 2.68 · @3.05
2.64Expected goals
1.34Nottingham Forest xG
1.31Leeds xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nottingham Forest 1.3 – 1.3 Leeds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nottingham Forest to win✗
39%
2.58
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nottingham Forest / FT Nottingham Forest✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.50
–
Form
Nottingham Forest – last 6
WWLLLW
16 Aug
vs Stade Brestois 29
2–0
W
12 Aug
vs Bayer Leverkusen
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Barcelona
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Udinese
0–1
L
31 Jul
@ Sporting CP
1–4
L
31 Jul
@ Portimonense
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leeds – last 6
WDWWWL
15 Aug
vs FC Augsburg
4–0
W
12 Aug
vs Manchester United
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
2 Aug
@ Liverpool
4–2
W
31 Jul
@ Sunderland
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Wrexham
2–3
L
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nottingham Forest and Leeds.
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
On our numbers Nottingham Forest have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leeds 37%.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our predicted score is Nottingham Forest 1–1 Leeds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at City Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
