Value bet: Lexington W to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting JAX W to win ✗46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.48
Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W preview and prediction
The match
Sporting JAX W host Lexington W in the USL Super League on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Hodges Stadium. Sporting JAX W are 3rd with 17 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Lexington W sit 5th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sporting JAX W's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Brooklyn W 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lexington W's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Carolina Ascent W 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Sporting JAX W and 1.2 for Lexington W. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sporting JAX W 46%, draw 21%, Lexington W 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Lexington W to win at 3.25 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sporting JAX W 1–1 Lexington W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting JAX W46%fair 2.19 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.30
Lexington W33%fair 2.99 · @3.25
2.77Expected goals
1.52Sporting JAX W xG
1.25Lexington W xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Sporting JAX W 1.5 – 1.2 Lexington W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting JAX W to win✗
46%
2.19
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting JAX W / FT Sporting JAX W✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.48
–
Form
Sporting JAX W – last 6
LDWWWL
13 Sep
@ Brooklyn W
2–3
L
5 Sep
@ DC Power W
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Dallas Trinity W
2–0
W
23 Aug
vs Tampa Bay Sun W
3–2
W
16 Aug
@ Fort Lauderdale United W
1–0
W
23 Jun
vs TLH Reckoning W
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lexington W – last 6
LLWDWD
12 Sep
vs Carolina Ascent W
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs DC Power W
1–2
L
16 Aug
vs Brooklyn W
3–0
W
31 May
vs Carolina Ascent W
1–1
D
24 May
vs Dallas Trinity W
2–0
W
3 May
@ Spokane Zephyr W
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting JAX W and Lexington W.
What is the prediction for Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W?
On our numbers Sporting JAX W have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lexington W 33%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W?
Our predicted score is Sporting JAX W 1–1 Lexington W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W?
Sporting JAX W vs Lexington W (USL Super League) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Hodges Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
