Value bet: Hamilton Academical to win @ 2.05 – our chance 57% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHamilton Academical to win ✓57% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical preview and prediction
The match
Montrose host Hamilton Academical in the League One on Saturday 1 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Links Park. Montrose are 4th with 20 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Hamilton Academical sit 2nd on 33 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Montrose's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Spartans 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hamilton Academical's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Elgin City 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.0 for Montrose and 1.8 for Hamilton Academical. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Montrose 23%, draw 20%, Hamilton Academical 57%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Hamilton Academical to win at 2.05 – 57% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Montrose 1–1 Hamilton Academical. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montrose23%fair 4.42 · @3.00
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.55
Hamilton Academical57%fair 1.75 · @2.05
2.87Expected goals
1.04Montrose xG
1.83Hamilton Academical xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–36%
1–06%
From our goals model: Montrose 1.0 – 1.8 Hamilton Academical expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hamilton Academical to win✓
57%
1.75
2.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Half-time result
Hamilton Academical ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hamilton Academical / FT Hamilton Academical✓
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.63
–
Form
Montrose – last 6
LWWWWL
25 Jul
vs Spartans
0–2
L
21 Jul
@ Arbroath
2–0
W
18 Jul
@ Stirling Albion
2–0
W
14 Jul
vs Dundee Utd
1–0
W
8 Jul
vs Inverurie Loco Works
7–0
W
4 Jul
vs ST Johnstone
0–3
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Hamilton Academical – last 6
WLDWWD
25 Jul
vs Elgin City
5–0
W
21 Jul
@ Kilmarnock
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Raith Rovers
1–1
D
11 Jul
@ Peterhead
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
4–0
W
27 Jun
@ Raith Rovers
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montrose and Hamilton Academical.
What is the prediction for Montrose vs Hamilton Academical?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Montrose vs Hamilton Academical?
On our numbers Montrose have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Hamilton Academical 57%.
How many goals will there be in Montrose vs Hamilton Academical?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montrose vs Hamilton Academical?
Our predicted score is Montrose 1–1 Hamilton Academical, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Montrose vs Hamilton Academical?
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical (League One) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Links Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
