Value bet: Stenhousemuir to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultStenhousemuir to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.17
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir preview and prediction
The match
Ayr Utd host Stenhousemuir in the Championship on Friday 25 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Somerset Park. Ayr Utd are 7th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Stenhousemuir sit 4th on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Ayr Utd's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Queen's Park 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Stenhousemuir's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Arbroath 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Stenhousemuir arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Ayr Utd and 1.0 for Stenhousemuir. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Value angle: Stenhousemuir to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Ayr Utd 0–1 Stenhousemuir. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ayr Utd36%fair 2.76 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Stenhousemuir39%fair 2.54 · @3.10
2.00Expected goals
0.97Ayr Utd xG
1.03Stenhousemuir xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.0 – 1.0 Stenhousemuir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stenhousemuir to win✓
39%
2.54
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.17
–
Form
Ayr Utd – last 6
WLLDLL
18 Sep
@ Queen's Park
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Inverness CT
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Partick
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Morton
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Raith Rovers
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Kilmarnock
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Stenhousemuir – last 6
WWLWWW
19 Sep
vs Arbroath
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Partick
1–0
W
11 Sep
vs Heart Of Midlothian
0–3
L
4 Sep
@ Livingston
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Inverness CT
3–1
W
22 Aug
@ Queen's Park
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir.
What is the prediction for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stenhousemuir 39%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 0–1 Stenhousemuir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir (Championship) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
