Championship · Scotland · The Home of the Set Fare ArenaLivingston vs Stenhousemuir prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Livingston 1.9 – 0.6 Stenhousemuir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Livingston are clear favourites at home with a 70% chance of winning, against 12% for Stenhousemuir.
Livingston have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Stenhousemuir have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.9 for Livingston, 0.6 for Stenhousemuir). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (15%), 3–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Livingston have won 0, Stenhousemuir have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.42 is close to our fair price of 1.41.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Livingston to win ✗ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Double chance | Livingston or draw ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| Half-time result | Livingston ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Livingston / FT Livingston ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.45 | – |
Form
Livingston – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Arbroath | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Dunfermline | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Aug | @ Partick | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | vs Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Stenhousemuir | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Jul | vs Forfar Athletic | 8–0 | W |
Stenhousemuir – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs Inverness CT | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Queen's Park | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Motherwell | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Morton | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | @ Raith Rovers | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs Livingston | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 25 Jul 2026 | Stenhousemuir v Livingston | 0–0 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Partick | 14 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 14 | +11 | 25 |
| 3 |  Dunfermline | 14 | +8 | 25 |
| 4 |  Stenhousemuir | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 |  Inverness CT | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 13 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Morton | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 14 | -15 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
On our numbers Livingston have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Stenhousemuir 12%.
How many goals will there be in Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Livingston vs Stenhousemuir?
Livingston vs Stenhousemuir (Championship) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at The Home of the Set Fare Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.