Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSagamihara to win ✗56% · @1.85
Double chanceSagamihara or draw ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu preview and prediction
The match
Sagamihara host Kitakyushu in the J3 League on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 09:00 (WAT) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium. Sagamihara are 3rd with 31 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Kitakyushu sit 13th on 19 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sagamihara's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Matsumoto Yamaga 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Kitakyushu's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Gainare Tottori 2–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Sagamihara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.0 for Sagamihara and 1.2 for Kitakyushu. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Sagamihara or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sagamihara 2–1 Kitakyushu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sagamihara56%fair 1.79 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.30
Kitakyushu21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
3.17Expected goals
2.00Sagamihara xG
1.17Kitakyushu xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sagamihara 2.0 – 1.2 Kitakyushu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sagamihara to win✗
56%
1.79
1.85
Double chance
Sagamihara or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Sagamihara ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sagamihara / FT Sagamihara✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Form
Sagamihara – last 6
WDLLWW
13 Sep
@ Matsumoto Yamaga
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs Parceiro Nagano
1–1
D
2 Sep
vs Jubilo Iwata
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ FC Ryukyu
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Kanazawa
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Thespakusatsu Gunma
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Kitakyushu – last 6
LLLWDD
12 Sep
vs Gainare Tottori
2–4
L
9 Sep
@ FC Ryukyu
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Ehime FC
2–4
L
2 Sep
vs Iwaki
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Tochigi SC
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sagamihara and Kitakyushu.
What is the prediction for Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?
Our pick is Sagamihara or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?
On our numbers Sagamihara have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Kitakyushu 21%.
How many goals will there be in Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?
Our predicted score is Sagamihara 2–1 Kitakyushu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu?
Sagamihara vs Kitakyushu (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
