Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC preview and prediction
The match
Tochigi SC travel to Shiranami Stadium in the J3 League on Saturday 19 September (11:00 WAT) to face Kagoshima United. Kagoshima United are 4th with 31 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Tochigi SC sit 12th on 21 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Kagoshima United's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Biwako Shiga 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Tochigi SC's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Parceiro Nagano 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Kagoshima United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Kagoshima United and 1.1 for Tochigi SC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kagoshima United 56%, draw 22%, Tochigi SC 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Kagoshima United to win – a 56% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Kagoshima United 2–1 Tochigi SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kagoshima United56%fair 1.79 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.10
Tochigi SC22%fair 4.49 · @3.60
3.00Expected goals
1.89Kagoshima United xG
1.11Tochigi SC xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Kagoshima United 1.9 – 1.1 Tochigi SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kagoshima United to win✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Kagoshima United ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kagoshima United / FT Kagoshima United✓
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Form
Kagoshima United – last 6
WWLWWD
13 Sep
@ Biwako Shiga
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
2 Sep
vs Consadole Sapporo
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Kamatamare Sanuki
4–3
W
26 Aug
@ Albirex Niigata
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs FC Gifu
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tochigi SC – last 6
DLWLLD
13 Sep
@ Parceiro Nagano
1–1
D
9 Sep
vs Montedio Yamagata
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Kochi United
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ FC Gifu
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Kawasaki Frontale
1–3
L
22 Aug
vs Kitakyushu
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kagoshima United and Tochigi SC.
What is the prediction for Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
Our pick is Kagoshima United to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
On our numbers Kagoshima United have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tochigi SC 22%.
How many goals will there be in Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
Our predicted score is Kagoshima United 2–1 Tochigi SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?
Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC (J3 League) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Shiranami Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
