Value bet: FC Lugano to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Lugano to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.05
FC Thun vs FC Lugano preview and prediction
The match
FC Lugano travel to Cornaredo in the Super League on Sunday 25 October (14:00 WAT) to face FC Thun. FC Thun are 8th with 14 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while FC Lugano sit 1st on 34 points (top of the table). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FC Thun's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FC Lugano's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Getafe 5–2 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Lugano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 1.6 for FC Thun and 2.5 for FC Lugano. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Thun 25%, draw 16%, FC Lugano 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.40.
Value angle: FC Lugano to win at 1.83 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: FC Thun 1–2 FC Lugano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Thun25%fair 3.98 · @3.40
Draw16%fair 6.44 · @4.00
FC Lugano59%fair 1.69 · @1.83
4.10Expected goals
1.59FC Thun xG
2.51FC Lugano xG
70%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–37%
1–17%
2–27%
2–36%
2–15%
From our goals model: FC Thun 1.6 – 2.5 FC Lugano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Lugano to win✓
59%
1.69
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
FC Lugano ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Lugano / FT FC Lugano✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.05
–
Form
FC Thun – last 6
LDLLWW
22 Oct
vs HNK Hajduk Split
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ FC Schaffhausen
1–1
D
15 Oct
@ Twente
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ FC Zurich
2–4
L
3 Oct
vs SC Kriens
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Vaduz
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC Lugano – last 6
WWWWLW
22 Oct
@ Getafe
5–2
W
18 Oct
@ Pully Football
4–0
W
15 Oct
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
3–2
W
10 Oct
vs FC Luzern
4–0
W
2 Oct
vs Hellas Verona
1–3
L
20 Sep
@ Lausanne
4–0
W
3.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Thun and FC Lugano.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
On our numbers FC Thun have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 16% and FC Lugano 59%.
How many goals will there be in FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
Our predicted score is FC Thun 1–2 FC Lugano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
FC Thun vs FC Lugano (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Cornaredo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
