Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Luzern to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.36
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.44
FC Luzern vs FC Thun preview and prediction
The match
The Super League sees FC Luzern take on FC Thun on Saturday 25 July, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Thermoplan Arena. FC Luzern are 9th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while FC Thun sit 8th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FC Luzern's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to St. Truiden 1–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
FC Thun's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with Dinamo Zagreb 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
FC Luzern arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.2 for FC Luzern and 1.2 for FC Thun. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 67% and both teams to score at 65%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Luzern 63%, draw 12%, FC Thun 25%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.36.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Luzern to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Luzern 2–1 FC Thun. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Luzern63%fair 1.58 · @1.95
Draw12%fair 8.29 · @3.95
FC Thun25%fair 4.08 · @3.25
3.47Expected goals
2.23FC Luzern xG
1.25FC Thun xG
65%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: FC Luzern 2.2 – 1.2 FC Thun expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Luzern to win✗
63%
1.58
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.80
Half-time result
FC Luzern ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Luzern / FT FC Luzern✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.44
–
Form
FC Luzern – last 6
LWWWWL
18 Jul
vs St. Truiden
1–2
L
10 Jul
@ FC WIL 1900
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs FC Winterthur
3–2
W
27 Jun
vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3–2
W
12 May
vs FC Zurich
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Servette FC
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FC Thun – last 6
DLDDLW
21 Jul
vs Dinamo Zagreb
1–1
D
11 Jul
vs Waldhof Mannheim
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs SV Elversberg
1–1
D
17 May
@ FC ST. Gallen
1–1
D
14 May
vs BSC Young Boys
3–8
L
8 Mar
@ BSC Young Boys
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Luzern and FC Thun.
Our pick is FC Luzern to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
On our numbers FC Luzern have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 12% and FC Thun 25%.
How many goals will there be in FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
Our predicted score is FC Luzern 2–1 FC Thun, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is FC Luzern vs FC Thun?
FC Luzern vs FC Thun (Super League) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Thermoplan Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
