Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FC Aarau to win @ 1.73 – our chance 61% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Aarau to win ✗61% · @1.73
Double chanceFC Aarau or draw ✗83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.31
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge preview and prediction
The match
The Challenge League sees FC Aarau take on Étoile Carouge on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). FC Aarau are 6th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Étoile Carouge sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FC Aarau's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat FC Zurich 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Étoile Carouge's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
FC Aarau arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 July 2026, finished Étoile Carouge 3–0 FC Aarau. Across their last 3 meetings FC Aarau have won 1, Étoile Carouge 2, with 0 draws and 3.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for FC Aarau and 0.9 for Étoile Carouge. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Aarau 61%, draw 22%, Étoile Carouge 17%.
Safer route: FC Aarau or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.50.
Value angle: FC Aarau to win at 1.73 – 61% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Aarau or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: FC Aarau 1–0 Étoile Carouge. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Aarau61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.60
Étoile Carouge17%fair 5.95 · @3.90
2.75Expected goals
1.88FC Aarau xG
0.87Étoile Carouge xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: FC Aarau 1.9 – 0.9 Étoile Carouge expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
Our pick is FC Aarau or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
On our numbers FC Aarau have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Étoile Carouge 17%.
How many goals will there be in FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
Our predicted score is FC Aarau 1–0 Étoile Carouge, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge (Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
