Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.40Odds
1
Value bet: FC Winterthur to win @ 2.15 – our chance 49% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Winterthur to win ✓49% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.70
FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau preview and prediction
The match
FC Aarau travel to face FC Winterthur in the Challenge League on Friday 18 September (19:15 WAT). FC Winterthur are 2nd with 25 points from 13 games (in the top four), while FC Aarau sit 6th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
FC Winterthur's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Étoile Carouge 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Aarau's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with SC Kriens 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
FC Winterthur arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.8 for FC Winterthur and 1.4 for FC Aarau. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Winterthur 49%, draw 20%, FC Aarau 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.40.
Value angle: FC Winterthur to win at 2.15 – 49% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: FC Winterthur 1–1 FC Aarau. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Winterthur49%fair 2.02 · @2.15
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.50
FC Aarau30%fair 3.31 · @2.80
3.19Expected goals
1.82FC Winterthur xG
1.37FC Aarau xG
68%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–07%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: FC Winterthur 1.8 – 1.4 FC Aarau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Winterthur to win✓
49%
2.02
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.64
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Winterthur / FT FC Winterthur✗
30%
3.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.70
–
Form
FC Winterthur – last 6
WWDDWW
11 Sep
@ Étoile Carouge
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
4–0
W
1 Sep
@ Stade Nyonnais
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1–1
D
21 Aug
@ Rapperswil
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Zürich City
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FC Aarau – last 6
DWDWLD
12 Sep
vs SC Kriens
2–2
D
4 Sep
vs Rapperswil
3–2
W
31 Aug
@ FC WIL 1900
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Yverdon Sport
1–2
L
16 Aug
@ Biel-Bienne
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Winterthur and FC Aarau.
What is the prediction for FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau?
On our numbers FC Winterthur have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FC Aarau 30%.
How many goals will there be in FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau?
Our predicted score is FC Winterthur 1–1 FC Aarau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau?
FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau (Challenge League) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
