AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa Conference League sees AF Elbasani take on Bate Borisov on Tuesday 7 July, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Elbasan Arena.
Form guide
AF Elbasani's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Vllaznia Shkodër 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Bate Borisov's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to FC Gomel 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
AF Elbasani arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for AF Elbasani and 0.7 for Bate Borisov. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AF Elbasani 64%, draw 23%, Bate Borisov 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.05.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: AF Elbasani 1–0 Bate Borisov. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AF Elbasani64%fair 1.57 · @1.53
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.60
Bate Borisov13%fair 7.57 · @6.00
2.49Expected goals
1.80AF Elbasani xG
0.69Bate Borisov xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: AF Elbasani 1.8 – 0.7 Bate Borisov expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AF Elbasani to win✗
64%
1.57
1.53
Double chance
AF Elbasani or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
2.05
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
AF Elbasani ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AF Elbasani / FT AF Elbasani✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.80
–
Form
AF Elbasani – last 6
WWLLLW
31 May
@ Vllaznia Shkodër
2–1
W
24 May
vs Dinamo Tirana
3–0
W
17 May
vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0–4
L
10 May
vs Tirana
1–3
L
6 May
@ Bylis
1–2
L
27 Apr
vs Vllaznia Shkodër
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Bate Borisov – last 6
LLLWDD
2 Jul
vs FC Gomel
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ Torpedo Zhodino
0–3
L
21 Jun
vs Arsenal
2–3
L
17 Jun
@ Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
4–1
W
12 Jun
@ Belshina
1–1
D
31 May
vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov.
What is the prediction for AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
On our numbers AF Elbasani have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bate Borisov 13%.
How many goals will there be in AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
Our predicted score is AF Elbasani 1–0 Bate Borisov, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Tuesday 7 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Elbasan Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
UNA Strassen1
La Fiorita0