Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
2
Value bet: Grafičar to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGrafičar to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.29
Naftagas vs Grafičar preview and prediction
The match
Naftagas host Grafičar in the Prva Liga on Monday 24 August, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Gradski stadion. Naftagas are 9th with 22 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Grafičar sit 14th on 17 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Naftagas's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Borac Cacak 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Grafičar's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Loznica 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Naftagas and 1.2 for Grafičar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 44%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Grafičar to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Naftagas 1–1 Grafičar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naftagas36%fair 2.81 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Grafičar40%fair 2.51 · @2.90
2.29Expected goals
1.10Naftagas xG
1.19Grafičar xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Naftagas 1.1 – 1.2 Grafičar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grafičar to win✗
40%
2.51
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grafičar / FT Grafičar✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.29
–
Form
Naftagas – last 6
LLLDWW
19 Aug
@ Borac Cacak
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Dubočica
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ OFK Vršac
0–1
L
31 Jul
@ Loznica
0–0
D
14 Jul
@ Macva
2–1
W
15 Apr
vs Mladost Bački Jarak
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Grafičar – last 6
DWLLLW
19 Aug
vs Loznica
2–2
D
14 Aug
@ FK Vozdovac
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Semendrija 1924
1–2
L
2 Aug
@ Napredak
0–1
L
25 Jul
@ Borac Cacak
0–3
L
24 May
vs FK Trayal
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naftagas and Grafičar.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Naftagas vs Grafičar?
On our numbers Naftagas have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Grafičar 40%.
How many goals will there be in Naftagas vs Grafičar?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naftagas vs Grafičar?
Our predicted score is Naftagas 1–1 Grafičar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Naftagas vs Grafičar?
Naftagas vs Grafičar (Prva Liga) kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Gradski stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
